Amidst Plenty of Overstretched Valuation And Sentiment Measures, S&P 500 On Pace For Back-To-Back 20%-Plus Gains
The S&P 500 is up north of 27 percent year-to-date – the second consecutive year of gains of north of 20 percent. Buybacks and margin debt are cooperating, but several other measures are... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 875.7k, down 16.2k. The futures market is now factoring in a 96-percent chance of a 25-basis-point reduction... READ MORE
Amidst New Highs In Equity Indices, Elevated Investor Sentiment And Volatility/Options Dynamics Probably Favor Contrarians
In a seasonally favorable period, new highs keep coming for the major US equity indices. This has pushed several sentiment indicators into gross overbought territory. The S&P 500 last Friday enjoyed its 56th... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 891.9k, down 34.7k. The futures market is now factoring in an 86-percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut... READ MORE
New Intraday High On Russell 2000 Last Week Comes Amidst Earnings Deceleration And Improving Investor Sentiment
Small-cap bulls had to wait three long years to see a new high on the Russell 2000, but they failed to hang on to the gains last week. They have achieved this feat... READ MORE
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 And Russell 2000 All Defend Post-Election Breakout Last Week
Major US equity indices experienced a gap-up breakout on November 6, after it became apparent that the presidential election from the previous day was won by Donald Trump. Last week, those breakouts were... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 907.5k, up 91.7k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week strong with Monday touching 4.49 percent intraday... READ MORE
Russell 2000 Retreats After Coming Ever So Close To Nov ’21 Record; S&P 600 Operating Earnings Now On Track To Decline This Year
The Russell 2000 just made a three-year round trip but fell slightly short of posting a new high. The economy continues to perform well – a plus – but long rates have diverged... READ MORE