Even Before Friday’s Jobs-Induced Selloff, Sellers Showed Up Last Week At Important Technical Resistance On Major Equity Indices
Last Friday was painful for equity bulls, as strength in the labor market forced markets to rerate rate-cut hopes. But the major US equity indices were already under pressure as bears defended crucial... READ MORE
Equity Indices Itching To Move Higher N/T
Unlike its large-cap cousins such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000 gained last week. It is too early to read too much into this. But odds favor strength... READ MORE
VIX Spike Reversal Last Week Probably Suggests Lower Volatility In Sessions Ahead
Volatility bulls had a great opportunity last week to score a major victory but came up short in the end. VIX had a decent week, but the inability to hang on to most... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 732.9k, down 142.8k. In the 12 months to November, headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased... READ MORE
Amidst Plenty of Overstretched Valuation And Sentiment Measures, S&P 500 On Pace For Back-To-Back 20%-Plus Gains
The S&P 500 is up north of 27 percent year-to-date – the second consecutive year of gains of north of 20 percent. Buybacks and margin debt are cooperating, but several other measures are... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 875.7k, down 16.2k. The futures market is now factoring in a 96-percent chance of a 25-basis-point reduction... READ MORE
Amidst New Highs In Equity Indices, Elevated Investor Sentiment And Volatility/Options Dynamics Probably Favor Contrarians
In a seasonally favorable period, new highs keep coming for the major US equity indices. This has pushed several sentiment indicators into gross overbought territory. The S&P 500 last Friday enjoyed its 56th... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 891.9k, down 34.7k. The futures market is now factoring in an 86-percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut... READ MORE