Despite risks pertaining to geopolitics, inflation, interest rates, and what not, US equity indices continue to defy gravity – jumping 20 percent to 30 percent the past couple of months. Corporate profits have provided a steady tailwind. In the March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 788k, down 60.1k. A falling trendline from October 2023 when the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent proved too much of a hurdle … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.1k, up 66.9k. The fed funds rate currently stands at a target of 350 basis points to 375 basis points. The benchmark rates have … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 781.2k, down 34.1k. Minutes for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued
Semi stocks have gone parabolic since the March low, helping the Nasdaq 100 attain massive gains; tech, in turn, has helped the broader S&P 500. The magnitude is always debatable, but some level of froth is forming in equities. Thanks … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 5, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.3k, down 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week with an intraday tag of 4.46 percent on Monday, closing lower a basis point … Continued
Even as options traders continue to remain complacent but doing so are minting money, non-commercial futures traders just turned bearish on tech shares. Amidst this, some early signs of fatigue are showing up in small-caps, although cash keeps setting new … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839.2k, up 48.2k. It increasingly looks like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, will have his hands full once he takes over. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 791k, down 9.4k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets next week. Five more scheduled meetings remain after this for this year. The fed … Continued
The major US equity indices have all accumulated massive gains over the last three weeks. Rallies of such magnitude over such a short period of time do not occur very often and come amidst a dichotomy of consumer confidence that … Continued