Foreign Demand For Treasurys Still Decent – What If When Deficit Spending Goes Up?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

What if? What if China proceeds to reduce its purchases of Treasury securities?  At $1.18 trillion, it is the largest holder.  Japan – at $1.08 trillion – is close second. The U.S. Treasury market is $14.2-trillion strong (chart here). On … Continued

Ongoing Inventory Digestion, And Possible Accumulation — Again

posted in: Economy | 0

Thanks to faster growth in the second half last year, inventory is getting wrung out of the system.  It is probably only a matter of time accumulation occurs again. In 3Q17, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one?  The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Excesses, Momentum Intact – Watching Shorter-Term Averages For Clues N/T

A P/E of 17x on the S&P 500 large cap index cannot be called euphoric.  A little above average, sure, but not euphoric.  On forward operating earnings using next year’s estimates, that is what the index is currently trading at. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on.  Doves versus hawks.  At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 83.7k, up 39.4k. No one said a breakout of this significance would be easy. Last week, 10-year yields closed right underneath a three-decade-old descending … Continued

Ten-Year Yields Under Upward Pressure, But Not Enough For Major Breakout

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel.  A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise.  At one point, yields … Continued

1 2 3 4 63