CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 574k, down 29.5k. It was almost as if Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, did not want equities to go lower. That is the feeling … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued

Mid- And Small-Caps Lag Large-Caps From Oct ’22 Lows, But Neck And Neck From ’23 Lows; Mid-Caps At Crucial Juncture Technically

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued

‘Risk-On’ Rally In S&P 500, Or Nasdaq 100, Without Willingness To Take On Leverage Probably Unsustainable

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

January saw margin debt only inch up, even as the S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent. This divergence, should it continue in the months ahead, could end up helping equity bears more than the bulls. The S&P 500 opened 2024 with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 760.5k, down 67.9k. FOMC minutes for the January 30-31 meeting are due out Wednesday. The policy-making body stood pat at that meeting, with the … Continued