The major US equity indices have all accumulated massive gains over the last three weeks. Rallies of such magnitude over such a short period of time do not occur very often and come amidst a dichotomy of consumer confidence that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 800.4k, down 23.3k. The 10-year treasury yield is back at testing crucial horizontal support at 4.20s. This week, it dropped seven basis points to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 7, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 823.6k, up 39.6k. Non-commercials are once again aggressively adding to net shorts in 10-year futures, with the holdings up 58 percent from a 20-month … Continued
It is too soon to say if last week’s rally was primarily the result of short-covering. It may be, but the fact remains that equity bulls did defend important support. A relief rally was due given the fact that the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.1k, up 142.2k. Minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting are due out Wednesday. Markets do not expect these minutes to contain anything earth-shattering. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 24, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 641.9k, up 44k. Borrowing costs are rising – on the long end. The 10-year treasury yield has gone from an intraday low of 3.96 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 17, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 597.9k, up 63k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) held rates as expected. The fed funds rate was left unchanged at a range of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 534.9k, down 119.6k. In the 12 months to January, headline and core CPI rose 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent respectively; headline and core PCE … Continued
The major US equity indices have either lost important support or close to doing so. Both large- and small-caps seem to be eyeing the 200-day. Small-cap bulls were unwilling last Friday to pounce on February’s dismal jobs report, rather sold … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 654.5k, down 119.5k. February pulled a surprise, as the economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, even as January and December were revised lower by a … Continued