Amid Divergences, QQQ Bulls Last Week Defend 11-Month Support, But Denied At S/T Resistance

There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities.  Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week.  Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult.  Overbought … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure.  It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued

Bulls Grow Their Ranks Further, Risks Rising Could Pull Back Horns

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

For the first time in 29 weeks, the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears ratio crossed three.  Having come after a nearly 26 percent rally in the S&P 500, this likely is not the beginning of a trend. Investors Intelligence bulls jumped three … Continued

Non-Commercials’ Record Bet On Lower VIX Could Get Vindicated N/T If Russell 2k Reclaims 1600

Inventory burn likely weighs on growth in future quarters, casting doubt on the sell-side’s expectations for a pick-up in earnings growth momentum as the year progresses.  This is a medium- to long-term issue.  Near term, recapturing of 1600 on the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.8k, up 48.1k. After getting rejected at 2.61 percent Wednesday last week, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.51 percent) went after that level again this … Continued

Margin Debt Diverges With Stocks, VIX Maintains At Higher Plateau

The S&P 500 is within striking distance of a new high, even as margin debt is substantially below last May’s record high.  Concurrently, unlike in the past, VIX refuses to sustainably drop to high single digits/low double digits. Margin debt … Continued

Some Potential Green Shoots From Money Markets, Although Foreigners Send Different Message

There was a massive drop in money-market assets last week.  This is a potential green shoot should this continue, although bulls could not quite cash in on it last week.  The mother of all potential green shoots – foreigners – … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent.  … Continued