Major equity indices essentially went sideways last week, and interest rates firmed up. August fared very well in job creation, and this probably puts the FOMC under pressure to tighten monetary policy, provided of course this Friday’s CPI report plays … Continued
An interest-rate hike next month is looking like a certainty. Warsh’s hawkish posture on inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s target for more than five years, comes at a time when corporate profit growth is at an unsustainable level. … Continued
With more than three-fifths of S&P 500 companies having reported June-quarter results, investor attention is likely to gradually shift elsewhere looking for catalysts. This void likely gets filled by the Fed and the rejuvenated debate around inflation in the weeks … Continued
Prospects for higher short rates are kind of taking a toll on equity indices that until recently were pricing in monetary easing this year. The elevated investor optimism has taken a hit but is nowhere near done in the big … Continued
Post-FOMC statement last Wednesday, equities sold off, but only to recover quickly. Investors have been preconditioned to buy the dips, with repeated success. The difference this time is that prospects for higher rates are real. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a rise in interest rates post-May jobs report as an excuse to lock in gains last Friday. More unwinding probably lies ahead. Until last Thursday, the S&P 500 was on course for a record … Continued
The major US equity indices have either lost important support or close to doing so. Both large- and small-caps seem to be eyeing the 200-day. Small-cap bulls were unwilling last Friday to pounce on February’s dismal jobs report, rather sold … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the major equity indices last week all rallied toward their October highs, even as short-term indicators got further pushed into overbought territory. The meeting likely becomes a sell-the-news phenomenon. The Russell 2000 finished up … Continued
Equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. With index-level short interest at/near record, longs, if successful, will be able to build on last week’s positive momentum. Seasonality is on their side, but it is equally possible this potential tailwind has … Continued
Stocks are on the backfoot, with bulls continuing to hang on to optimism for lower rates and bears beginning to benefit from extended multiples plus weakening technicals. Near-term, bulls are likely to benefit from last Friday’s intraday reversal, even as … Continued