CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

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Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued

Equity Momentum Faded As Last Week Progressed, Bearish Sentiment Not Elevated Enough To Help Out Bulls

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Equity bulls rallied the major US stock indices strongly early last week, but the momentum faded as the week progressed. One of the reasons for this is the lack of potential tailwind coming from heightened bearish sentiment. Equity bulls are … Continued

Equity Bulls Put Foot Down, Reflex Rally Due; Potential Catalysts Include 3Q Earnings And 10-Year T-Yield

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With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued

For 1st Time In Nearly 2 Years, Investors Intelligence Ratio Of Bulls To Bears Reaches 3 – This Is Not Extreme But Lopsidedly Bullish

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The ratio of Investors Intelligence bulls to bears hit three this week. This is not as extreme as four, or higher, but in today’s market, even three is becoming rare. This takes place even as the S&P 500 just hit … Continued

NIPA Profits Down 3 Quarters In Succession; Sell-Side Will Probably Continue To Revise ’23/’24 S&P 500 Estimates Lower

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NIPA profits are now down three quarters in a row. The downward momentum likely continues in an environment in which the fed funds rate has gone up by 500 basis points over 14 months. This will force the sell-side to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 411.4k, up 27.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has his hands full. He wants to slow down the US economy to bring inflation under … Continued

Equities Surge Last Week Post-CPI, Staring At Crucial Resistance Amidst Lagging Breadth

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Last Thursday’s CPI report lit a fire under US stocks. It was as if the FoMO phenomenon was in play in a seasonally strong period. But it is early to adopt a full risk-on mode. By Friday, the S&P 500 … Continued

Tue’s CPI To Decide If Non-Commercials Will Cover Short Bets On Large-And Small-Caps

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After three straight down weeks, both large- and small-caps rallied strong last week. More could follow should non-commercial futures traders, who remain heavily net short S&P 500 e-mini and Russell 2000 mini-index contracts, are forced to cover. Last week began … Continued

Revision Trend In ’23 Earnings Estimates Down, Yet To Reflect Full Extent Of End-Demand Softness That Lies Ahead

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Next year’s earnings estimates for US companies peaked in April for large-caps and in June for small-caps. Given Powell’s resolve to significantly reduce the current four-decade-high inflation – no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy – the … Continued