Another Relief Rally Likely — Equally Likely Shorts Show Up At Resistance

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

From the all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8 through last Friday’s intraday low of 2420.69, the S&P 500 large cap index shed 2.8 percent.  Not much in a big scheme of things.  It is still up 8.3 percent this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued

Relief Rally Possible Near Term, As VIX Unwinds Overbought Condition

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden.  This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 210.9k, down 69.8k. So far this year, there have been two rate hikes – and four altogether since the Fed started raising in December … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued

Ray Of Hope – At Least Near Term – For Bruised Volatility Bulls

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”.  If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 282.3k, up 25.3k. Through Wednesday, $1.1 billion moved into TLT (iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF) this month (courtesy of ETF.com). In late April, non-commercials … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 257k, down 5.9k. On Tuesday, markets interpreted Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony as dovish.  Ten-year T-yields fell four basis points to 2.33 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 263k, down 39.1k. The speed by which long rates rose the past couple of weeks took many by surprise.  Intraday between June 26 and … Continued

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