Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 6, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.6k, down 24.1k. Going into December’s jobs report out Friday, futures traders were extremely confident that the fed funds rate would be left unchanged … Continued
In a seasonally favorable period, US equity indices are rallying but with hesitancy, with small-caps and tech struggling to build on most recent momentum. This can change if VIX breaches eight-year trendline support. As of the 16th this month, non-commercials, … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the major equity indices last week all rallied toward their October highs, even as short-term indicators got further pushed into overbought territory. The meeting likely becomes a sell-the-news phenomenon. The Russell 2000 finished up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 23, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 844.1k, up 24.8k. The 10-year treasury yield has approached a crucial spot. It finished up five basis points this week to 4.19 percent, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 16, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 819.3k, down 38.7k. As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 400 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 9, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 858k, down 10.4k. Next week, the FOMC meets. The two-day affair ends on Wednesday, and this will be the sixth meeting this year; two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 2, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 868.4k, down 15.5k. Non-farm payrolls continue to disappoint. August only produced 22,000 jobs, with June revised lower into a minus column – the first … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 26, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 883.8k, down 61.7k. Unlike his first four-year term, President Donald Trump’s preoccupation with the Federal Reserve has gone up meaningfully during his second term. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 19, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 945.5k, up 3.3k. Chair Jerome Powell used Friday’s Jackson Hole speech to suggest a rate cut is coming in the next meeting, which is … Continued
Markets have amped up rate-cut expectations for both this year and next, with some even ludicrously calling for a 50-basis-point reduction in next month’s FOMC meeting. Inflation has trended higher the last four-five months. This makes it difficult for the … Continued