Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 8, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 840.6k, up 56.9k. Once again, non-commercials are adding to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, with this week adding 7.3 percent … Continued
Trendline support on VIX from last July’s low was once again defended last week. Concurrently, large-cap indices in particular keep attracting sell orders near their February highs. Last week, volatility bulls defended last July’s rising trendline for the third straight … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 10, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 724.1k, up 18.8k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the fourth scheduled meeting this year, and four more remain. During the May 6-7 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 3, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 705.3k, down 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield acts like it wants to go test trendline resistance from October 2023 when a 16-year high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 27, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 769.6k, down 81.8k. Non-commercials seem to be anticipating lower yields ahead. They remain heavily net short 10-year note futures but have been actively cutting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 20, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 851.4k, down 38.9k. FOMC minutes for the May 6-7 meeting are due out next Wednesday. As expected, the fed funds rate was left steady … Continued
The rally since early-April lows has equity bulls aggressively expressing their sentiment in options, which, should the current trajectory persist, will have potentially reached a dangerous level soon. Optimism is in the air. Equity longs are expressing this in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 13, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 890.4k, down 62.8k. The good thing is that the US has lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent, even as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 29, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 871.5k, down 34.5k. The FOMC meets next week. The two-day meeting ending Wednesday is the year’s third, and five more remain after this. During … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 22, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 906.1k, down 31.6k. A dramatic confrontation between the White House and the Federal Reserve has been put off – for now. President Donald Trump … Continued