Near-Term Fate Of US Dollar Index Likely Rests With Non-Commercials

The US dollar index, pretty much dancing to its own tune since peaking early this year, likely sits at a crucial level technically. The U.S. economy added stronger-than-expected 222,000 non-farm jobs in June.  Friday, the US dollar index pretty much … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

Recent Uptick In Unit Labor Costs Unlikely To Sustain

posted in: Economy | 0

The latest productivity report had observers buzzing more about unit labor costs than output per hour. In 4Q16, unit labor costs jumped at an annual rate of 1.68 percent, up from 0.18 percent in 3Q16. This comes in the wake … Continued

Markets Dance To Fed’s Tune Way Too Much … Matter Of Time Before This Backfires

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued

Stocks Vulnerable Near Term Particularly If August Payroll Is Strong

Jackson Hole came and went. At the annual confab, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, last Friday seemed to agree with preceding hawkish messages from three prominent FOMC members – Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, William Dudley, New York Fed president, and John Williams, … Continued

Breakout On Major U.S. Indices Fizzles Or Sizzles To Blow-Off Top?

Breakouts galore in U.S. equity indices! The S&P 500 large cap index broke out to a new all-time high on July 11th, and has since made several more highs.  The breakout came after having gone sideways since essentially February 2015 … Continued

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