The three major equity indices are all down from their recent all-time highs and closed last week right on – or in slight breach of – potentially important support. A decisive breakdown will meaningfully swing the odds to bears’ favor. … Continued
Going back several weeks, even months, equity bears have had their chances, but to no avail. But they are staying put with their bearish bias. In fact, they are increasingly getting more aggressive. Short interest on both the Nasdaq and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 401k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the April 30-May 1 meeting out Wednesday showed members were worried over slow progress on inflation. For the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 481.6k, up 48.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of Tuesday, holdings closed at 481,620 contracts, up from … Continued
If the overnight strength in the futures market sticks and Tuesday’s CPI report cooperates, there is room for continued rally in stocks. Some indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day are way suppressed, although the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 28, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 181.7k, down 46.5k. A couple of weeks after forming a weekly shooting star, it is looking more and more likely that the 10-year treasury … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 21, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 228.2k, up 22.7k. Jerome Powell this week testified on monetary policy in front of Congress. Just last week, after raising the fed funds rate … Continued
With a couple of tough weeks, both large- and small-caps last week suffered a slight breach of support, but not decisively just yet. Concurrently, VIX is flashing signs of fatigue. For equity bulls, if there is going to be a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.7k, up 11.9k. Next Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s second; six more remain after this. Ahead of this, fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 3, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 87.7k, down 76.8k. A total of 5.7 million and counting. That is the number of non-farm jobs needed to match the pre-pandemic high of … Continued