CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued

OPEC Wants Higher Price But Not High Enough To Aid U.S. Shale

Over the weekend, non-OPEC producers agreed to cut crude output by 558,000 barrels per day, of which Russia would reduce by 300,000 b/d.  This followed OPEC’s November 30 decision to cut output by 1.2 million b/d. The deal goes into … Continued

Stocks Defy Expectations Last Five Weeks – VIX:VXV Flash Warning Signal

Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($41.62) produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average ($42.77).  Right above lied another layer of resistance at $43.50 going back to January 2015 (Chart 1). A shooting star … Continued

Spot Gold Looks Tired – GLD Weekly Naked Call For Premium

In the latest week, non-commercials cut net longs in gold futures by three percent period-over-period to 169,512 contracts.  This was the first weekly reduction in eight weeks (Chart 1).  The prior week’s holdings were the highest since February 3rd last … Continued

U.S. Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance ↓ – At Least Near Term

Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since.  With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued

1 2