Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 14, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 831.7k, up 17.4k. The FOMC meets in 10 days (July 28-29), and the ground may be shifting toward a point where hawkish members begin … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 814.3k, up 5.4k. The CME’s FedWatch tool is back at forecasting two 25-basis-point hikes by next March. The fed funds rate has been left … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 23, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 835.3k, down 75.8k. Eight days after newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sounded tough on inflation came May’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) report, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.8k, up 34.2k. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be chairing an FOMC meeting for the first time next week; the two-day … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a rise in interest rates post-May jobs report as an excuse to lock in gains last Friday. More unwinding probably lies ahead. Until last Thursday, the S&P 500 was on course for a record … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 829.6k, up 41.6k. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chief. Although it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 788k, down 60.1k. A falling trendline from October 2023 when the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent proved too much of a hurdle … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.1k, up 66.9k. The fed funds rate currently stands at a target of 350 basis points to 375 basis points. The benchmark rates have … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a spike in long rates as an excuse to lock in profit last week. Maximum complacency is evident in equity options, even as the 10-year sits right at trendline resistance from October 2023; a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 781.2k, down 34.1k. Minutes for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued