The major equity indices sit just below their all-time highs, and you would not know this by looking at the deeply suppressed consumer sentiment. Concurrently, leading into the start of 2Q earnings, the daily Bollinger bands have tightened on these … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 814.3k, up 5.4k. The CME’s FedWatch tool is back at forecasting two 25-basis-point hikes by next March. The fed funds rate has been left … Continued
With the Fed seemingly focused on price stability, and odds of a hike in the benchmark rates rising, small-caps atypically are outperforming their large-cap peers of late. The creation of 57,000 non-farm jobs in June fell well short of the … Continued
Prospects for higher short rates are kind of taking a toll on equity indices that until recently were pricing in monetary easing this year. The elevated investor optimism has taken a hit but is nowhere near done in the big … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 23, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 835.3k, down 75.8k. Eight days after newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sounded tough on inflation came May’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) report, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.8k, up 34.2k. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be chairing an FOMC meeting for the first time next week; the two-day … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a rise in interest rates post-May jobs report as an excuse to lock in gains last Friday. More unwinding probably lies ahead. Until last Thursday, the S&P 500 was on course for a record … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 829.6k, up 41.6k. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chief. Although it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 788k, down 60.1k. A falling trendline from October 2023 when the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent proved too much of a hurdle … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.1k, up 66.9k. The fed funds rate currently stands at a target of 350 basis points to 375 basis points. The benchmark rates have … Continued