Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 788k, down 60.1k. A falling trendline from October 2023 when the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent proved too much of a hurdle … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.1k, up 66.9k. The fed funds rate currently stands at a target of 350 basis points to 375 basis points. The benchmark rates have … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a spike in long rates as an excuse to lock in profit last week. Maximum complacency is evident in equity options, even as the 10-year sits right at trendline resistance from October 2023; a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 781.2k, down 34.1k. Minutes for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 5, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.3k, down 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week with an intraday tag of 4.46 percent on Monday, closing lower a basis point … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839.2k, up 48.2k. It increasingly looks like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, will have his hands full once he takes over. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 791k, down 9.4k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets next week. Five more scheduled meetings remain after this for this year. The fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 800.4k, down 23.3k. The 10-year treasury yield is back at testing crucial horizontal support at 4.20s. This week, it dropped seven basis points to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 7, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 823.6k, up 39.6k. Non-commercials are once again aggressively adding to net shorts in 10-year futures, with the holdings up 58 percent from a 20-month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.1k, up 142.2k. Minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting are due out Wednesday. Markets do not expect these minutes to contain anything earth-shattering. … Continued