Amid Divergences, QQQ Bulls Last Week Defend 11-Month Support, But Denied At S/T Resistance

There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities.  Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week.  Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult.  Overbought … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure.  It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued

Stocks Up Last Couple Of Sessions, With Signs Risk-Off Not Completely Let Go

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Before large-caps were sold early May, traders were already gravitating toward risk-off.  Stocks have rallied the past couple of sessions, but there are still no signs of full-on risk-on. Eight sessions ago, on May 6, the Russell 2000 small cap … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.8k, up 48.1k. After getting rejected at 2.61 percent Wednesday last week, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.51 percent) went after that level again this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture.  Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week.  Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued

10-Year T-Yield Breaks Crucial Support, TLT Overbought Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

The 10-year T-yield not only lost a rising trend line from July 2016 but also decade-old support at 2.62 percent.  TLT has been on a tear, but is overbought; digestion of the recent gains is the path of least resistance. … Continued