As Good As It Gets?

Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February.  The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued

FOMC Next Year To Look Whole Lot Different From This Year’s — With Repercussions

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

The usual middle-of-the-road approach.  Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is.  (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued

December Payroll Report Ignites Hopes Of Wage Acceleration – How Justified?

posted in: Economy | 0

The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent.  December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued

XLF, Rallying Along 2-Year Treasury Yield, Likely To Offer Opportunity To Shorts In Due Course

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight.  The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued

Hawks Versus Doves – Odds Of Former Losing Ground In Rate Debate

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Fed’s dual mandate currently is a source of ammo for both hawks and doves within the FOMC.  Would it always remain this way? Core PCE inflation has been ticking up a bit of late, but still below the Fed’s … Continued

Big Stock Move Upon Us? Why Profits/Buybacks Likely Hold Key

Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows.  From low … Continued

Fed Up — Doing Same Thing Over And Over, But Expecting Different Results!

Three months.  That is all it took for the Fed to do a 360. In the middle of last December, the fed funds rate was raised for the first time in nine years – to still-zero-bound 37 basis points.  The … Continued

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