CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued

Going By Small-Cap Action, Investors Subtly Leaning Toward Risk-Off

If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Back Up, But Still Under Crucial 2.62%

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 17, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 106.3k, down 86.3k. If Politico is to be believed, President Trump is leaning toward Jerome Powell, Fed governor, for the next Federal Reserve chair.  … Continued

Foreigners Purchasing U.S. Equities, While Reducing Treasury Holdings

posted in: Credit, Equities, Uncategorized | 0

The S&P 500 large cap index was flat in March.  Foreigners only purchased $876 million worth of U.S. stocks in that month. Of late, they have been more of a tailwind than a headwind. The 12-month rolling total of foreign … Continued

SPY Weekly Short Put — Willing To Go Long Near Support

December thus far has been uncharacteristically quiet.  And that is putting it nicely.  U.S. stocks have failed to get seasonal traction this month.  So far. There are eight sessions remaining before the year is out.  So there is hope. Since … Continued

JNK Relief Rally Possible Short-Term, But More Pain Probably Lies Ahead Medium- To Long-Term

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

One look at Chart 1, and it is hard to notice a significant change in momentum behind the U.S. high-yield debt market.  Through July, issuance totaled $188.4 billion.  Annualized, 2015 is on track to issuing north of $300 billion – … Continued

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