M2 Growth Deceleration Plus Recent Backup In Rates No Recipe For Overheating

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought.  Al­though several saw increased upside risks … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Give Out Early Signs Of Fatigue – TLT Buy Write

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After a big rally in recent months, 10-year Treasury yields are giving out signs of fatigue – at least near term. Interest rates have suddenly become the talk of the town. Ten-year yields rallied from 2.03 percent on September 7 … Continued

Rising Deficit Spending Probably Biggest Risk To U.S. Sovereign Yields

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Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending. In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive enough to entice aggressive buying.  Ten-year yields ended the session up eight basis … Continued

Technical Resistance On 10-Year Yields Broken, But How About Resistance Offered By Fundamentals?

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The U.S. sovereign bond market is in upheaval.  So to speak. Ten-year Treasury yields have broken out.  Chart 1 is a monthly chart.  If in the next couple of sessions, these yields stay north of at least 2.5 percent – … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one?  The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued

Ten-Year Yields Under Upward Pressure, But Not Enough For Major Breakout

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Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel.  A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise.  At one point, yields … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued

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