WTI Crude Looks Tired – Trade Brewing In XLE

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade.  As they usually are.  These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.3k, down 107.6k. A Bloomberg article last week about China beginning to weigh slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys gave the bond market … Continued

Foreign Demand For Treasurys Still Decent – What If When Deficit Spending Goes Up?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

What if? What if China proceeds to reduce its purchases of Treasury securities?  At $1.18 trillion, it is the largest holder.  Japan – at $1.08 trillion – is close second. The U.S. Treasury market is $14.2-trillion strong (chart here). On … Continued

Post-Tax Cuts, Sell Side Rushes To Revise Up ’18 Earnings Estimates – P2S Ratio In Uncharted Territory

posted in: Equities | 0

The sell side is on the move. We just got the first taste of how bottom-up analysts view the recently passed tax cuts will impact corporate earnings. Last Friday, operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies were revised higher by … Continued

Ongoing Inventory Digestion, And Possible Accumulation — Again

posted in: Economy | 0

Thanks to faster growth in the second half last year, inventory is getting wrung out of the system.  It is probably only a matter of time accumulation occurs again. In 3Q17, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one?  The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the December 16-29 (2017) period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Already up 3.2 percent for the month/year, XLB (62.47) stayed with the daily upper … Continued

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