Downward Revision Trend In S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Intact Despite Improvement In Macro Of Late

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Of late, U.S. economic data have been coming in better than expected.  Is this getting translated into better corporate sales and earnings? The Citi Economic Surprise Index has shot up from -80 in the middle of the year to 56. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued

Foreigners No Headwind For U.S. Stocks And Treasurys At This Moment, But No Major Tailwind Either

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The Treasury’s Treasury International Capital System data contain a treasure trove of useful information as relates to flows of money into and out of the U.S for purchases and sales of U.S. securities. On this post, we will deal with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent.  Are they sending … Continued

Divergence Galore – Risk-Off Sentiment Reflected In Small-Caps, High-Yield

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

There is divergence in the markets.  Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other.  Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued

Corporate Bond Issuance Keeps Humming – Any Investment Implications?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate bond issuance continues at a healthy pace, with high-yield in particular on course for growth this year after three consecutive yearly decline. In October, corporate debt issuance totaled $140.9 billion, consisting of $118.2 billion in investment-grade and $22.7 … Continued

What If?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Is the U.S. economy strong, weak or just about right?  Better yet, is it getting stronger, weaker or going sideways?  The truth is, pessimists and optimists both can selectively pick and choose to support their own bias. That said, data … Continued

Savings Rate Drops To Decade Low – Elevated Home Prices Major Factor In Propping Consumer Confidence/Spending

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In September, Americans saved a mere 3.1 percent of their disposable personal income.  This was the lowest since three percent in December 2007.  The savings rate has trended lower since peaking at 6.3 percent in October 2015, which means it … Continued

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