XLY Bulls Deny Completion Of Double Top – Comparatively, RCD Fares Poorly

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

XLY (SPDR consumer discretionary ETF) saves a potential breakdown – for now, and just in time. On June 5 this year, XLY (89.36) rallied to 92.14, before retreating.  Seven weeks later, on July 27, it rallied to 92.55, only to … Continued

Near-Term Fate Of US Dollar Index Likely Rests With Non-Commercials

The US dollar index, pretty much dancing to its own tune since peaking early this year, likely sits at a crucial level technically. The U.S. economy added stronger-than-expected 222,000 non-farm jobs in June.  Friday, the US dollar index pretty much … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

As Good As It Gets?

Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February.  The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued

Recent Uptick In Unit Labor Costs Unlikely To Sustain

posted in: Economy | 0

The latest productivity report had observers buzzing more about unit labor costs than output per hour. In 4Q16, unit labor costs jumped at an annual rate of 1.68 percent, up from 0.18 percent in 3Q16. This comes in the wake … Continued

December Payroll Report Ignites Hopes Of Wage Acceleration – How Justified?

posted in: Economy | 0

The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent.  December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued

Sales Of New And Existing Homes Break Out – Genuine Or False?

posted in: Economy | 0

There probably is an air of excitement among U.S. housing bulls – particularly the technically oriented ones.  Sales of both new and existing homes have broken out of recent ranges. In June, new homes rose 3.5 percent month-over-month to a … Continued

Fed’s Hawkish Desire Versus Uncooperative Macro Data

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May.  Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued

S&P 500 Index: 200-DMA Path Of Least Resistance?

A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll.  As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued

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