CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 24, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 113.3k, down 31.9k. It turned out to be quite an anticlimax – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s virtual speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, … Continued

Blockbuster 2Q21 Earnings Season Winding Down, Watching 50DMA On S&P 500

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

S&P 500 earnings are beating consensus estimates by a wide margin. Stocks, which had rallied massively into the season, are only trudging higher. Near term, they are likely to struggle to find positive catalysts. The 50-day, which is merely 2.5 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 164.5k, up 75.6k. This week’s FOMC meeting was big yawn except for one thing. Members obviously left the fed funds rate at the current … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 8, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 173.4k, up 118.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s fourth scheduled meeting; four more remain. Not much is expected to occur … Continued

Hooked On Monetary Morphine, Large-Caps Are Beginning To Wish For Softer Data

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst continuation of aggressive accumulation of assets by the Federal Reserve and a trial balloon last week by Philadelphia Fed president of eventual tapering, large- and small-caps are going their separate ways – the former liking soft economic data and … Continued

Unwinding Of Balance Sheet News – Real News Is When Fed Reverses Decision

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react?  The … Continued

EEM Looks Ripe For Buy-Write

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

After a three-month 17-percent drop, EEM, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF, looks ripe for an options trade. On May 22, 2013, Ben Bernanke, then-Fed chair, suggested that the Fed would begin tapering back nearly $70 billion in monthly purchases of … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 9, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the IMF urged the Fed to delay a rate hike until 2016.  This week, the World Bank said the same thing. … Continued

HYG, JNK not likely to take kindly to hawkish Fed, let alone end of ZIRP

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Last six years, U.S. high-yield bond issuance of $1.6tn This week, several Fed officials signal imminent rate hike this year Junk bonds – popular risk-on vehicle – not likely to take kindly to end of ZIRP A week ago, HYG, … Continued