CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 123.9k, up 12.9k. The U.S. economy is in its ninth year of recovery. Post-Great Recession, real GDP has grown at an average 2.2 percent.  … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Back Up, But Still Under Crucial 2.62%

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued

R2K Breaks Out – Breakout Retest Matter Of Time, And Will Test Rally’s Sustainability

There is a new-found spring in U.S. small-caps’ step.  What changed all of a sudden?  More importantly, are there ingredients in place for the rally to sustain itself? The Russell 2000 small cap index just broke out.  It has been … Continued

Unwinding Of Balance Sheet News – Real News Is When Fed Reverses Decision

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

It is probably a foregone conclusion that the Fed later today leaves interest rates unchanged, and will announce a plan to gradually shrink its massive portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds. The question is, how would the markets react?  The … Continued

XLF Likely Faces Selling Pressure If Rallies To Broken Support

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With XLF (SPDR financial ETF) short interest near a multi-month low and the Treasury yield curve continuing to come under pressure, U.S. financials are acting weak, even breaking down. Back in March this year, XLF unsuccessfully tested the prior high … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued

US Dollar Index Chirping – Will Last if Non-Commercials Jump Onboard

posted in: Currency, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

The US dollar index (93.44) of late is showing some nice price action.  Will it be enough to lead non-commercials to begin to accumulate net longs in US dollar index futures? A sustained rally can reverberate through a whole host … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 257k, down 5.9k. On Tuesday, markets interpreted Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony as dovish.  Ten-year T-yields fell four basis points to 2.33 … Continued

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