Even As 10-Year Yield Shows Signs Of Fatigue, TLT Shorts Get Aggressive – Squeeze Odds Up

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

The 10-year yield rallied from 1.13 percent in early August to last Friday’s 1.69 percent. Bond bears expecting higher rates are getting aggressive. At some point, they risk being in a crowded trade. The 10-year treasury yield is flashing signs … Continued

3-Week Selloff Pushes Major Equity Indices To Crucial Support – Opportunity For Bulls To Step Up And Defend

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices took it on the chin last week. Medium- to long-term, there is more to go on the downside – if nothing else just to unwind overbought conditions. Near-term, in the right circumstances for bulls, a relief … Continued

After 9 Weeks Of Rally, Signs Of Fatigue Last Week On Russell 2000/IWM

US stocks are on fire.  The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent.  This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent.  Conditions are … Continued

SPY Rallies To Just Under 260 – Sideways At Best, Downward At Worst Likely Path N/T

Since the intraday low on Boxing Day, SPY is up nearly 11 percent.  Too far, too fast?  Possibly, as the ETF is just a hair breadth away from support-turned-resistance at 260, which it lost mid-December. The Fed has a dual … Continued

Soothing Words From Powell Help Stocks – Momentum Lies With Bulls For Now

Fundamentals are still a suspect, but US stocks were treated with soothing comments from Fed chief last week.  Bulls have the ball, but bears are likely to show up at $260 on SPY. Speaking at the American Economic Association’s annual … Continued

Oversold Stocks Have Room To Rally, But Macro Worries Get In The Way

Volatility has picked up in US stocks.  This is a perfect environment for traders who are nimble enough and ready to take ones and twos, quickly locking in what markets give them. It is increasingly becoming clear why stocks began … Continued

Odds Growing Sharp Reflex Rally In S&P 500 Sooner Than Later

From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent.  Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath.  Several indicators are at/near panic levels.  Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street.  … Continued

TLT Overbought Near Term – Path Of Least Resistance Down

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

The 10-year T-yield dropped from 3.24 percent a month ago to last Thursday’s intraday low of 2.83 percent.  The daily chart is grossly oversold.  A rally looks imminent near term, meaning TLT is headed lower. US average hourly earnings for … Continued

Small-Caps Last Week Continued To Bleed But Performed Relatively Better – Signal Or Noise?

US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week.  Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better.  Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued

After Decent Rally Last Week, Stocks Likely In Limbo This Week

After a decent rally in equities last week, this week has on the docket several potentially market-moving events – from FOMC meeting to mid-term elections to China trade.  Longs can think of selling some covered calls. Last week, two separate … Continued