XLF Bulls Manage Another Crack At 2007 Resistance, Meet With Failure Again

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Once again, XLF (SPDR financial ETF) has been denied at resistance that goes back a decade. In December 2015, for the first time since July 2006, the Fed raised the fed funds rate.  It was a 25-basis-point increase to a … Continued

Commodities Rally – Relief or Something More? Watching Non-Commercials For Clues

Commodities had a nice week last week. After five consecutive weekly losses, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index rallied 4.2 percent last week, but dropped 2.8 percent anyway in June – its sixth straight negative month. Last week’s action is encouraging, but … Continued

FOMC Next Year To Look Whole Lot Different From This Year’s — With Repercussions

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

The usual middle-of-the-road approach.  Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is.  (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued

December Payroll Report Ignites Hopes Of Wage Acceleration – How Justified?

posted in: Economy | 0

The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent.  December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued

Fed May Have Missed Opportunity – Again!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance.  It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1).  The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued

Having Rallied To Right Underneath Jan ‘15 Resistance, TLT Looks Tired N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year.  This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued

Spot Gold Clinging On To Recent Breakout

There is a lot of excitement among non-commercial futures traders about spot gold’s prospects.  In the 12 weeks since February 9th through May 3rd, they nearly tripled net longs in gold futures – from 98,428 to 271,648 contracts – to … Continued

Markets Not Worried About Inflation Intermediate-Term, They Are Probably Right

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Federal Reserve would like some inflation.  In fact, every major central bank would.  Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued

Fed Set To Set Precedent

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today.  Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued

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