Risk-Reward Dynamics Argue Better Dip-Buying Opportunities Ahead N/T

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Once Again, a rally in VIX was used as an opportunity to sell – sell hard. Last Friday, in the wake of the Michael Flynn news, VIX shot up to 14.58 intraday but only to end the session up 0.15 … Continued

Stocks Rallied, Bonds Fell In Post-Election Optimism – Latter Now Disagrees

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

After President Donald Trump won the election last November, U.S. bonds and stocks had a massive positive reaction.  The former sold off, the latter rallied. On November 8 (election day), TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, closed at … Continued

Bulls Momentum-Drunk – Rightly So Thus Far – But Momentum Cuts Both Ways

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Say what you want, equity bulls deserve kudos! There is an unprecedented bid under the market particularly since the election (November 8) last year.  The S&P 500 large cap index has nearly rallied 11 percent since!  The rubber band keeps … Continued

Pie-In-Sky Optimism Risks Hard-Landing

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Regardless whether or not it is solely related to the outcome of the November 8 U.S. presidential election, several data points have seen an uptick since. Stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 large cap index up nearly six percent between … Continued

Decent Odds Jan Next Year Will Be Like Jan This Year

posted in: Currency, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Notice the plateauing to slightly rising red line in Chart 1? In the middle of January this year, 2017 operating earnings estimates of S&P 500 companies were started out at $141.11.  At the time, 2016 estimates were just north of … Continued

Corporate Profits Snap 5 Straight Quarters Of Y/Y ↓ – Will Be Difficult To Sustain Momentum

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory and depreciation in 3Q16 grew the most quarter-over-quarter since 2Q14.  They rose 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, breaking five consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline (Chart 4).  Profits peaked … Continued

Dollar Index Breaks Out To 13-Year High – Probably Safe To Fade

Post-Trump victory, the Treasury yield curve has moved up as well as steepened, with the 10-year yield rising 47 basis points to 2.34 percent.  Yields have risen one full point since the July 6th all-time low of 1.34 percent. Inflation … Continued

Buybacks Continue To Decelerate In 3Q16

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

The pace of stock buybacks by S&P 500 companies continued to decelerate in 3Q16. With 86 percent reporting, as per Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices, buybacks are down eight percent quarter-over-quarter and down 22 percent year-over-year. These are … Continued

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