Downward Revision Trend In S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Intact Despite Improvement In Macro Of Late

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Of late, U.S. economic data have been coming in better than expected.  Is this getting translated into better corporate sales and earnings? The Citi Economic Surprise Index has shot up from -80 in the middle of the year to 56. … Continued

What If?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Is the U.S. economy strong, weak or just about right?  Better yet, is it getting stronger, weaker or going sideways?  The truth is, pessimists and optimists both can selectively pick and choose to support their own bias. That said, data … Continued

As Good As It Gets?

Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February.  The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued

Markets Dance To Fed’s Tune Way Too Much … Matter Of Time Before This Backfires

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued

U.S. Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance ↓ – At Least Near Term

Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since.  With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued

Bulls And Bears Cite Data To Suit Own Biases, Even As Markets Telling Us To Be Cautious

The chart below has fodder for both bulls and bears. At least going back to the last three decades – encompassing three recessions, including Great Recession – there have been five occasions in which the spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued

Market Mayhem — Watching Oil, Yuan, And VIX For Stability Signs

What a start?  The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start.  The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year.  Some others like the … Continued

Time For Bulls To Put Foot Down Near-Term; Medium- To Long-Term Outlook Dire

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With 2015 now in the annals of history, the message that came out can be described as mixed at best and bearish at worst. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7 percent last year – essentially flat (Chart 1).  The Nasdaq … Continued

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