Amidst Elevated Optimism, Caution Hat Out

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Peak optimism? We are increasingly beginning to hear commentators/observers use that phrase in media interviews, articles as well as on social media.  Among other things, Charts 1 and 2 are probably to blame. In the latest week, Investors Intelligence bulls … Continued

Between Buybacks And Dividends, Latter Rewards Shareholders Better

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

One of the hallmarks of post-Great Recession recovery has been subdued capital expenditures.  In 2Q16, real non-residential fixed investment was $2.19 trillion (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) – essentially flat since 3Q14.  Investment peaked at $2.22 trillion in 3Q15. … Continued

Nasdaq 100 In/Near Record Territory – Momentum Strong, Fundamentals Weak

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. tech stocks have come to life.  The Nasdaq composite (5213.14) is within spitting distance of its all-time high 5231.94 of July last year.  On a weekly closing basis, last week was a new record. The Nasdaq 100 index (4784.74) … Continued

Laggard Russell 2000 – Can It Follow Trail Blazed By S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100?

July turned out to be an important month for the S&P 500 large cap index.  More than a year after it peaked in May last year, the index reached a new high, rising 3.6 percent for the month. The July … Continued

Low Capacity Utilization Dissuades Businesses From Aggressive Capex Plans

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. capex continues to let down. May’s revised figures for new orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – were published on Tuesday, and there was not much change in the trend. Orders fell 0.5 … Continued

Amidst S&P 500’s 3.6% Fri Tumble, Looking For Signs Of Reversal N/T On Spot VIX

Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent.  It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session.  The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued

Fed’s Hawkish Desire Versus Uncooperative Macro Data

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May.  Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued

Dismal U.S. Capex Scene Continues — Not Likely To Change Anytime Soon

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate capital expenditures have been lackluster.  That is an understatement. As a percent of real GDP in 3Q15, non-residential fixed investment comprised 12.8 percent.  The post-Great Recession high of 12.9 percent was recorded in each of the three quarters … Continued

U.S. Inventory Remains Elevated, With Some Signs It Is Getting Worked Off

posted in: Economy | 0

At the start of the year, real GDP in the U.S. was expected to grow at three percent or better this year.  Actual numbers are falling short – substantially.  In the first three quarters, growth has been on a sub-two-percent … Continued

Case For U.S. Rates Needing To Stay Lower For Longer

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The energizer bunny marches on.  The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent.  This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued

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