Amidst Elevated Optimism, Caution Hat Out

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Peak optimism? We are increasingly beginning to hear commentators/observers use that phrase in media interviews, articles as well as on social media.  Among other things, Charts 1 and 2 are probably to blame. In the latest week, Investors Intelligence bulls … Continued

Fed Giveth, Fed Taketh Away?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Seven weeks of sideways action on the S&P 500 large cap index has been resolved.  Last Friday, the index dropped 2.5 percent, for a weekly drop of 2.4 percent.  This comes on the heels of an important breakout in July. … Continued

US Equity Indices Flash Signs Of Fatigue Left And Right

That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable.  That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable.  What is debatable … Continued

Sharp ↑ In Investor Complacency, U.S. Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance ↓ N/T

After a 13-session, heady rally off June 27th lows, U.S. stocks are beginning to reek of complacency.  The question is, is it now time to turn contrarian or things might stay complacent for a little while longer? Take put-to-call ratios. … Continued

Despite Massive Rally Off Feb 11th Low, Investor Sentiment Not Effusive

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

The magnitude of the equity rally the past couple of months has surprised many. Off the February 11th low through Thursday’s high, the S&P 500 index rallied 15 percent. This, despite the fact that equity flows into U.S.-based funds have … Continued

Of Similarities And Differences Between 2015 And 2011, Latter Outweigh

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Around the August lows in U.S. equities, several sentiment indicators looked washed out.  For instance, the bulls’ count in Investors Intelligence’s survey dropped to 24.7 percent in the September 29th week – the lowest since late December 2008 (although bears … Continued

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