XLF Bulls Manage Another Crack At 2007 Resistance, Meet With Failure Again

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Once again, XLF (SPDR financial ETF) has been denied at resistance that goes back a decade. In December 2015, for the first time since July 2006, the Fed raised the fed funds rate.  It was a 25-basis-point increase to a … Continued

FOMC Next Year To Look Whole Lot Different From This Year’s — With Repercussions

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

The usual middle-of-the-road approach.  Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is.  (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued

Infrastructure Spending – Markets Pricing In Too Much Of Good News?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

“…I want to solve health care, jobs, border control, tax reform.” The above quote is from a weekend interview president-elect Donald Trump gave to the Wall Street Journal. The article also talks about his willingness to keep parts of the … Continued

Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance Up Near Term, Not So Medium Term

As of last Friday, only 32.6 percent of S&P 500 stocks were above 50-day moving average, earlier having dropped to 29.8 percent on Wednesday.  This compares to 22 percent on June 27 (orange arrow in Chart 1) when the S&P … Continued

Markets Dance To Fed’s Tune Way Too Much … Matter Of Time Before This Backfires

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued

Amidst S&P 500’s 3.6% Fri Tumble, Looking For Signs Of Reversal N/T On Spot VIX

Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent.  It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session.  The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued

Even as 10-year attracts bids, non-commercials’ net shorts at four-year high

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy | 0

10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid.  A … Continued

Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued

Gold is bottoming, only question is duration

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Improvement in gold’s price action in recent sessions Key will be if non-commercials begin to add to net long gold futures Looks to be bottoming, but still tentative; short GLD puts safe way to go for now Gold ($1,187.9) is … Continued

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