Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.8k, up 34.2k. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be chairing an FOMC meeting for the first time next week; the two-day … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a rise in interest rates post-May jobs report as an excuse to lock in gains last Friday. More unwinding probably lies ahead. Until last Thursday, the S&P 500 was on course for a record … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 829.6k, up 41.6k. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chief. Although it … Continued
Despite risks pertaining to geopolitics, inflation, interest rates, and what not, US equity indices continue to defy gravity – jumping 20 percent to 30 percent the past couple of months. Corporate profits have provided a steady tailwind. In the March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 788k, down 60.1k. A falling trendline from October 2023 when the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent proved too much of a hurdle … Continued
Rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions and inflation worry, among others, are not making a dent in stocks – not yet anyway. Dips are persistently getting bought. Last week, the major US equity indices finished in such a manner that a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.1k, up 66.9k. The fed funds rate currently stands at a target of 350 basis points to 375 basis points. The benchmark rates have … Continued
An extremely overbought equity market used a spike in long rates as an excuse to lock in profit last week. Maximum complacency is evident in equity options, even as the 10-year sits right at trendline resistance from October 2023; a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 781.2k, down 34.1k. Minutes for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued
Semi stocks have gone parabolic since the March low, helping the Nasdaq 100 attain massive gains; tech, in turn, has helped the broader S&P 500. The magnitude is always debatable, but some level of froth is forming in equities. Thanks … Continued