Downward Revision Trend In S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Intact Despite Improvement In Macro Of Late

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Of late, U.S. economic data have been coming in better than expected.  Is this getting translated into better corporate sales and earnings? The Citi Economic Surprise Index has shot up from -80 in the middle of the year to 56. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued

Foreigners No Headwind For U.S. Stocks And Treasurys At This Moment, But No Major Tailwind Either

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The Treasury’s Treasury International Capital System data contain a treasure trove of useful information as relates to flows of money into and out of the U.S for purchases and sales of U.S. securities. On this post, we will deal with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent.  Are they sending … Continued

Divergence Galore – Risk-Off Sentiment Reflected In Small-Caps, High-Yield

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

There is divergence in the markets.  Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other.  Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued

Corporate Bond Issuance Keeps Humming – Any Investment Implications?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate bond issuance continues at a healthy pace, with high-yield in particular on course for growth this year after three consecutive yearly decline. In October, corporate debt issuance totaled $140.9 billion, consisting of $118.2 billion in investment-grade and $22.7 … Continued

Going By Small-Cap Action, Investors Subtly Leaning Toward Risk-Off

If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued

Hated Bull Market? Some Truth To That, But In Aggregate Has Been Fully Embraced

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever.  There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued

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