Amid Divergences, QQQ Bulls Last Week Defend 11-Month Support, But Denied At S/T Resistance

There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities.  Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week.  Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult.  Overbought … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure.  It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued

Stocks Up Last Couple Of Sessions, With Signs Risk-Off Not Completely Let Go

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Before large-caps were sold early May, traders were already gravitating toward risk-off.  Stocks have rallied the past couple of sessions, but there are still no signs of full-on risk-on. Eight sessions ago, on May 6, the Russell 2000 small cap … Continued

Fri’s Reversal Plus VIX Spike Reversal Raise Likelihood Of Rangebound Action N/T

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices took a beating last week, but, thanks to Friday’s reversal, they closed substantially off their lows, defending crucial support and the 50-day.  Concurrently, VIX suffered a spike reversal.  It is equity bulls’ ball to lose near … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 16-30 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Since peaking on April 17 at 58.50, XLB (54.40) has been down for four straight … Continued

Non-Commercials’ Record Bet On Lower VIX Could Get Vindicated N/T If Russell 2k Reclaims 1600

Inventory burn likely weighs on growth in future quarters, casting doubt on the sell-side’s expectations for a pick-up in earnings growth momentum as the year progresses.  This is a medium- to long-term issue.  Near term, recapturing of 1600 on the … Continued