Yet again, equity bulls successfully denied bears of an opportunity to build on incipient downside momentum. Action in the last two weeks had given the latter some opening, but the door was slammed shut after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It increasingly … Continued
The major US equity indices closed last week either right on or in slight breach of trendline support from last October’s low. Bulls’ mettle is being tested, even as investor sentiment remains too giddy. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued
With two more sessions to go this week, last week’s potentially bearish candle is not yet confirmed on the S&P 500. Concurrently, the bullish view continues to gather momentum as the ratio of Investors Intelligence bulls to bears crossed four … Continued
Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued
Stocks have rallied huge since last October’s lows. Breadth, however, has been a problem. Large-caps are outperforming, and even here, just a handful are leading the way. Mid- and small-caps are lagging. Amidst this bifurcation, mid-caps have now rallied within … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued
With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued