Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 1, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 909.3k, up 70.3k. Going into the two-day FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting ending on the 16th this month, markets were laser-focused on two … Continued
An interest-rate hike next month is looking like a certainty. Warsh’s hawkish posture on inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s target for more than five years, comes at a time when corporate profit growth is at an unsustainable level. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839k, down 108k. Once again, futures traders have brought rate-hike expectations forward to September (15-16) from December (8-9), with the probabilities for a quarter-point … Continued
Markets are confused. Rate-hike expectations on the short end have been pushed back to December from September. Yields, however, are rallying on the long end. Just a few weeks ago, Fed Chair Warsh was thanking the bond market for higher … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 947k, up 31.9k. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is taking on the bond market and could very well be on a collision course with the … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 continues to lag, while the Russell 2000 last week followed on the footsteps of the S&P 500 with a breakout of its own. Bearish investor sentiment in the meantime is hitting lows that in the past marked … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.1k, down 64.2k. FOMC minutes for the July 28-29 meeting will be published on Wednesday. During the meeting, the fed funds rate was left … Continued
Broader large-caps broke out to a new high last week responding to a dismal July jobs report and lower oil prices, even as small-caps seem poised for a breakout. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 will need a solid week to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 979.2k, up 103.1k. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh must be heaving a sigh of relief. As head of the central bank starting … Continued
With more than three-fifths of S&P 500 companies having reported June-quarter results, investor attention is likely to gradually shift elsewhere looking for catalysts. This void likely gets filled by the Fed and the rejuvenated debate around inflation in the weeks … Continued