CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 232.2k, down 24.5k. December looks like a lock.  The odds in the futures market of a 25-basis-point hike in the 12-13th meeting that month … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 256.6k, down 13.5k. The Treasury yield curve widened this week.  The spread between 10- and two-year notes went from 78 basis points on Monday … Continued

Relief Rally Possible Near Term, As VIX Unwinds Overbought Condition

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden.  This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued

Ray Of Hope – At Least Near Term – For Bruised Volatility Bulls

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”.  If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 30, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 258.2k, down 104.3k. “If the tension between the progress on employment and the lack of progress on inflation persists, it may lead me to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 179.9k, down 34.8k. Pre-FOMC decision this week, futures were pricing in 63 percent odds of a 25-basis point hike in June and 60 percent … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week.  In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 41.3k, down 23.2k. After dropping last week out of a five-month, 2.62 percent-2.31 percent range, 10-year Treasury yields (2.24 percent) proceeded to drop to … Continued

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