The December 13th Fed pivot lit a fire under risk assets, leading equity shorts to cover and ETF inflows to jump. Flows, however, began to turn negative as the new year began. This does not help the equity bulls, even … Continued
Investor sentiment is elevated. This is also evident in the CBOE put-to-call ratio and in VIX. Fund flows, however, continue to remain anemic even though the S&P 500 has rallied north of 20 percent from last October’s lows. Unless fund … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders are heavily on the short side. They can get forced to cover or get squeezed if equity longs had their way. It is not going to be easy for the latter. Having already spent a nice bit … Continued
The 2Q earnings season has gotten off strong. Stocks, having already rallied big into it, yawned. This is coming at a time when sentiment remains effusive and some of the tailwinds potentially turning into headwinds. VIX’s monthly chart could be … Continued
Major US equity indices are diverging. The S&P 500 is itching to once again break out, even as the Nasdaq 100 acts tentative. Tech has suffered technical damage, and without the sector’s participation, it is hard to imagine the S&P … Continued
Tech bulls only benefited in a minor degree from a major squeeze of non-commercials in the futures market. Concurrently, several other buying sources are increasingly acting hesitant. In the week to last Tuesday, non-commercials in Nasdaq 100 index (mini) futures … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 87k, up 81.5k. Last Thursday’s intraday high of 0.73 percent just about tested the upper bound of a five-month range, in which rates went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 398.9k, up 40k. The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come. Since late September last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued