CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 103.4k, up 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield had a mini breakout this week at 1.2 percent. This was preceded by a breakout six weeks … Continued

Potential VIX Breakdown Near-Term Opportunity For Equity Bulls, But Volatility Curve In Contango Medium-Term Risk

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

VIX is on the verge of a breakdown. After sustaining over 20 for a year, it risks losing that level in the sessions ahead. A decisive breach opens the door toward mid- to high-teens near term. This will have taken … Continued

Equity Indices Eyeing Fresh Highs – Trader Reaction To Earnings Key

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major equity indices are within striking distance of fresh highs.  Bulls hope the low hurdle in 1Q19 earnings helps put volatility under more pressure.  Trader reaction to earnings is key. Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from … Continued

October’s Selloff Was Panicky – Or Not – Depending On What Metrics One Looks At

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One of the knocks against October’s selloff in stocks is that there was no capitulation.  That depends on what indicators one looks at. On October 10, the ratio between NYSE decliners and advancers read 7.9.  In that same session, down … Continued

Stocks Once Again Under Pressure, But At/Near Crucial Support – Some Metrics Way Oversold

Stocks are selling off, but major indices are at/near crucial support, testing the will of the bulls. High-yield spreads are tightening.  In Chart 1, the ICE BofAML US high yield BB effective yield is pitted against Moody’s seasoned AAA corporate … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.3k, up 41.9k. Chairing his maiden meeting as Fed chief, Jerome Powell probably could not have asked for more insofar as markets’ reaction was … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 111.1k, up 36.2k. “In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial … Continued