CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 302.1k, down 43.1k. Rising asset prices were once again a talk of the Fed town. On Tuesday, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, … Continued

Short-Term Volatility Way Too Compressed To Cause Major Breakout On S&P 500

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Dips continue to get bought, even as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index, bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago.  Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued

Amid Mixed Volatility Messages, Volatility Curve Is One To Listen To Near Term

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Monday marked a history of sorts. All four major equity indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite and the Russell 2000 small cap index – broke out to fresh new highs.  The last time this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation.  The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are we beginning to see a chink in central bankers’ armor? Major central banks responded to the financial crisis by aggressively deploying both … Continued

Large Specs’ Massive Net Shorts In VIX Futures Contrarian Signal

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Back in 2013, by August 20th, non-commercials had built 116,317 contracts in net shorts in VIX futures.  In the next 10 weeks (by October 29th), net shorts dropped to 39,673 (Chart 1).  Intra-day, spot VIX jumped from 11.83 on August … Continued

Open Interest In VIX Options Call-Heavy in August, September

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In the August expiration, the amount of call open interest in VIX heavily outweighs that of puts.  Put open interest, represented by the red bars in Chart 1, is decent in near-the-money or slightly-in-the-money strikes, but pale in comparison to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 19, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth.  So the saying goes. Why bring this up?  There is a sudden uptick … Continued

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