CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 64.5k, up 8.8k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.23 percent) are breaking down. Shortly after post-election backup in yields last November, the 10-year began to so … Continued

Rally Possible – Question Is, Will It Begin Right Around Here Or From Lower Level?

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major U.S. equity indices are at/approaching their respective 200-day moving average, even as they have pushed into oversold territory. At last Friday’s lows, the S&P 500 large cap index came within 0.03 percent of that average, the Russell 2000 small … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued

Market Mayhem — Watching Oil, Yuan, And VIX For Stability Signs

What a start?  The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start.  The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year.  Some others like the … Continued

Time For Bulls To Put Foot Down Near-Term; Medium- To Long-Term Outlook Dire

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With 2015 now in the annals of history, the message that came out can be described as mixed at best and bearish at worst. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7 percent last year – essentially flat (Chart 1).  The Nasdaq … Continued

Non commercials net long VIX futures first time in three years — what implications?

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Spot VIX has had topsy-turvy ride this month First time in three years, hedge funds went net long VIX futures last week On three other occasions past five years, this preceded lower VIX in outer weeks/months The VIX has done … Continued

1 2