Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 11, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 1.2k, up 8.5k. FOMC minutes for the April 27-28 meeting will be made public on Wednesday. The meeting was a non-event – pretty much. … Continued
Reversing the prior week’s weakness, major US equity indices put up strong performance last week. The S&P 500, for instance, defended a rising trend line from last March. VIX collapsed, landing on low-20s, a breach of which opens the door … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 156.7k, down 117.3k. It seems nothing matters. On a day the bond market found out the US economy produced much-better-than-expected 273,000 non-farm jobs in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.9k, up 88.5k. One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed! In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued
VIX just rallied to a seven-month high. At the same time, it struggled to hang on to the gains in the past couple of sessions. The recent surge has pushed it into overbought territory, which could very well be in … Continued
Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued