Even as the major US equity indices have rallied into crucial resistance, the share of stocks above their 50-day is at/near levels where risks of reversal are very high. Stocks have come a long way the past three months. The … Continued
This week is crucial. The FOMC meets, and an inflation report that could potentially impact monetary policy next year is on deck as well. Leading up to this, both large- and small-caps met with heavy selling pressure at crucial resistance. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.8k, down 24.5k. Markets and the Federal Reserve are talking past each other. Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech was interpreted as dovish – probably … Continued
The S&P 500 has reached a crucial stage – kind of a make-or-break. Since peaking at 4819 in January this year, the large cap index has made two important lower highs – one in March and the other in August. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 321.3k, down 21.8k. Markets and FOMC hawks are on diverging paths. In the futures market, traders expect the fed funds rate to peak just … Continued
Last Thursday’s CPI report lit a fire under US stocks. It was as if the FoMO phenomenon was in play in a seasonally strong period. But it is early to adopt a full risk-on mode. By Friday, the S&P 500 … Continued
Until last Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell, it was looking like US equities would continue to rally, but post-speech, the potentially rosy outlook got turned on its head. From the June 17 intraday bottom of 3637 to the … Continued
Reversing weeks of downward pressure, major US stock indices had a big week last week. There is room to run, if nothing else just to unwind the oversold condition they are in. With one session to go, May is setting … Continued
Up 1.5 percent in the first three sessions this week, the S&P 500 probably has more gains in store in the sessions ahead. A crucial dual resistance is two percent away. Last week, for the first time in four weeks, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 24, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 113.3k, down 31.9k. It turned out to be quite an anticlimax – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s virtual speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, … Continued