Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.8k, down 48. In the first stare down with markets since his appointment in February last year, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, blinked. In this … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
An oversold market, desperate for positive news – real or perceived – got some Tuesday. Major US equity indices rallied massively, closing right at/near important resistance. In the right circumstances for bulls, more upside is likely near term. Medium-term risks … Continued
The S&P 500 is within striking distance of a new high, even as margin debt is substantially below last May’s record high. Concurrently, unlike in the past, VIX refuses to sustainably drop to high single digits/low double digits. Margin debt … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture. Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million. … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 16-29 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) In October last year, XLB (57.42) lost support just north of 56, which then repeatedly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 19-28 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Two weeks ago, XLB (55.51) was rejected at 56. This resistance goes back a couple … Continued