Potential VIX Breakdown Near-Term Opportunity For Equity Bulls, But Volatility Curve In Contango Medium-Term Risk

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

VIX is on the verge of a breakdown. After sustaining over 20 for a year, it risks losing that level in the sessions ahead. A decisive breach opens the door toward mid- to high-teens near term. This will have taken … Continued

Equity Indices Eyeing Fresh Highs – Trader Reaction To Earnings Key

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major equity indices are within striking distance of fresh highs.  Bulls hope the low hurdle in 1Q19 earnings helps put volatility under more pressure.  Trader reaction to earnings is key. Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture.  Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million.  … Continued

October’s Selloff Was Panicky – Or Not – Depending On What Metrics One Looks At

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

One of the knocks against October’s selloff in stocks is that there was no capitulation.  That depends on what indicators one looks at. On October 10, the ratio between NYSE decliners and advancers read 7.9.  In that same session, down … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 111.1k, up 36.2k. “In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial … Continued

Opportunity For Seasonality-Focused Dip-Buyers — Stocks Likely To Take Breather Soon

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major U.S. stock indices rallied to fresh new highs last week.  Even small-caps, which until recently had been lagging their large-cap brethren, joined the party. With seasonality in their favor, will the bulls be able to build on this or … Continued

S&P 500 Refuses To Buckle Under, But Sentiment Complacent Near Term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. equity bulls regained momentum last week, but this also put near-term sentiment at/near complacency. Since rising to an all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8, the S&P 500 large cap index was bound by a falling trend line (Chart … Continued

Stocks Offer Something For Both Bulls And Bears – Odds Again Favor Latter N/T

The past couple of weeks offered both equity bulls and bears a little something to celebrate.  The bulls got the relief rally, and the bears an opportunity to short.  What next? Since the S&P 500 large cap index peaked on … Continued