Opportunity For Seasonality-Focused Dip-Buyers — Stocks Likely To Take Breather Soon

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Major U.S. stock indices rallied to fresh new highs last week.  Even small-caps, which until recently had been lagging their large-cap brethren, joined the party. With seasonality in their favor, will the bulls be able to build on this or … Continued

S&P 500 Refuses To Buckle Under, But Sentiment Complacent Near Term

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U.S. equity bulls regained momentum last week, but this also put near-term sentiment at/near complacency. Since rising to an all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8, the S&P 500 large cap index was bound by a falling trend line (Chart … Continued

Stocks Offer Something For Both Bulls And Bears – Odds Again Favor Latter N/T

The past couple of weeks offered both equity bulls and bears a little something to celebrate.  The bulls got the relief rally, and the bears an opportunity to short.  What next? Since the S&P 500 large cap index peaked on … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued

Another Relief Rally Likely — Equally Likely Shorts Show Up At Resistance

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From the all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8 through last Friday’s intraday low of 2420.69, the S&P 500 large cap index shed 2.8 percent.  Not much in a big scheme of things.  It is still up 8.3 percent this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued

Ray Of Hope – At Least Near Term – For Bruised Volatility Bulls

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The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”.  If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 302.1k, down 43.1k. Rising asset prices were once again a talk of the Fed town. On Tuesday, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, … Continued

Short-Term Volatility Way Too Compressed To Cause Major Breakout On S&P 500

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Dips continue to get bought, even as volatility struggles to hold on to gains. On the S&P 500 large cap index, bulls forced a break out of 2400 five weeks ago.  Just a few days afterwards, the breakout was defended … Continued

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