There is a growing, although not overwhelming, feeling in the markets that the midterm results have raised the odds of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Arguably, extremely overbought equity markets are beginning to buy into this thesis, although faintly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 3, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 962.4k, down 19.2k. Democrats’ sweeping victory in Tuesday’s mid-term elections, giving them control of both the House and the Senate, is reverberating through all … Continued
As expected, the fed funds rate was left unchanged last week, and futures traders, post-FOMC meeting, unexpectedly lowered the number of quarter-point cuts through December 2027 to two from three pre-meeting. It is possible they are anticipating tighter financial conditions … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 27, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 981.5k, up 17.2k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) this week delivered what can be described as a hawkish hold, leaving the fed funds … Continued
As rates are expected to be left unchanged in this week’s FOMC meeting, inflation expectations for next year have firmed up a tad. Rates on the long end of the curve are near crucial support after reaching multi-year highs, even … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 20, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 964.3k, down 23.8k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets next week. The policy-making body is meeting after having unanimously raised the fed funds … Continued
Large-cap bulls last week squandered an opportunity to leave a decisive mark on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Those chances instead went begging, leaving the door open for the bears to inflict more pain. Going into last week, the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 13, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 988.1k, up 91.6k. Last week, after a massive rally, the 10-year treasury yield gave out subtle signs of fatigue. This week, it gave back … Continued
Equity bulls are positioned well to pull off a decisive breakout on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Help may come from rates and crude oil. The 10-year treasury yield has had a hell of a move in recent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 6, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 896.5k, down 4.1k. The persisting strength in the 10-year treasury yield has been the talk of the town. In February this year, these notes … Continued