The major US equity indices have all accumulated massive gains over the last three weeks. Rallies of such magnitude over such a short period of time do not occur very often and come amidst a dichotomy of consumer confidence that … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 800.4k, down 23.3k. The 10-year treasury yield is back at testing crucial horizontal support at 4.20s. This week, it dropped seven basis points to … Continued
VIX last week breached late-December trendline support but remains above the important 200-day. Concurrently, after a massive rally off the March 30 low, which was probably aided by short-covering, the major equity indices ended last week right at/near important resistance. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 7, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 823.6k, up 39.6k. Non-commercials are once again aggressively adding to net shorts in 10-year futures, with the holdings up 58 percent from a 20-month … Continued
It is too soon to say if last week’s rally was primarily the result of short-covering. It may be, but the fact remains that equity bulls did defend important support. A relief rally was due given the fact that the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.1k, up 142.2k. Minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting are due out Wednesday. Markets do not expect these minutes to contain anything earth-shattering. … Continued
Equity bears’ count is rising but is nowhere near past peak levels. With bulls having struggled to capitalize on opportunities, the major equity indices have taken a hit but may continue to come under pressure in the right circumstances for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 24, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 641.9k, up 44k. Borrowing costs are rising – on the long end. The 10-year treasury yield has gone from an intraday low of 3.96 … Continued
VIX is behaving rather erratically, moving in tandem with the S&P 500 the last couple of weeks, perhaps indicating that volatility is likely to subside at least near term – something equities are yet to agree with. What is it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 17, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 597.9k, up 63k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) held rates as expected. The fed funds rate was left unchanged at a range of … Continued