CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued

Foreigners No Headwind For U.S. Stocks And Treasurys At This Moment, But No Major Tailwind Either

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The Treasury’s Treasury International Capital System data contain a treasure trove of useful information as relates to flows of money into and out of the U.S for purchases and sales of U.S. securities. On this post, we will deal with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent.  Are they sending … Continued

Divergence Galore – Risk-Off Sentiment Reflected In Small-Caps, High-Yield

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

There is divergence in the markets.  Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other.  Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued

Going By Small-Cap Action, Investors Subtly Leaning Toward Risk-Off

If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued

Hated Bull Market? Some Truth To That, But In Aggregate Has Been Fully Embraced

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever.  There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week.  The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued

Amidst Persistently Complacent Investor Sentiment, S&P 500 Shows Signs Of Fatigue

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Investor sentiment continues to remain exuberant even as, for the first time in a while, there is a chink in the S&P 500’s armor. Investors Intelligence bulls this week jumped 2.3 points week-over-week to 62.3 percent.  This was a third … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 17, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 106.3k, down 86.3k. If Politico is to be believed, President Trump is leaning toward Jerome Powell, Fed governor, for the next Federal Reserve chair.  … Continued

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