With more than three-fifths of S&P 500 companies having reported June-quarter results, investor attention is likely to gradually shift elsewhere looking for catalysts. This void likely gets filled by the Fed and the rejuvenated debate around inflation in the weeks … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 28, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 876.1k, down 3.6k. Markets are having a tough time adjusting to a new Federal Reserve chair. As head of the central bank starting May … Continued
The three major equity indices are all down from their recent all-time highs and closed last week right on – or in slight breach of – potentially important support. A decisive breakdown will meaningfully swing the odds to bears’ favor. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 879.7k, up 48k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets next week (28-29), and this will be the second meeting chaired by newly appointed … Continued
Going back several weeks, even months, equity bears have had their chances, but to no avail. But they are staying put with their bearish bias. In fact, they are increasingly getting more aggressive. Short interest on both the Nasdaq and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 14, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 831.7k, up 17.4k. The FOMC meets in 10 days (July 28-29), and the ground may be shifting toward a point where hawkish members begin … Continued
The major equity indices sit just below their all-time highs, and you would not know this by looking at the deeply suppressed consumer sentiment. Concurrently, leading into the start of 2Q earnings, the daily Bollinger bands have tightened on these … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 814.3k, up 5.4k. The CME’s FedWatch tool is back at forecasting two 25-basis-point hikes by next March. The fed funds rate has been left … Continued
With the Fed seemingly focused on price stability, and odds of a hike in the benchmark rates rising, small-caps atypically are outperforming their large-cap peers of late. The creation of 57,000 non-farm jobs in June fell well short of the … Continued
Prospects for higher short rates are kind of taking a toll on equity indices that until recently were pricing in monetary easing this year. The elevated investor optimism has taken a hit but is nowhere near done in the big … Continued