US equities sold off Tuesday – apparently in reaction to higher-than-expected CPI readings for January. The consensus may have expected better prints, but the fact remains that last month’s y/y change was better than December’s. The disinflation trend is intact. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued
January ended up 1.6 percent. Historically, an up January bodes well for the rest of the year. This may very well be the case this year, but one should not be oblivious of how overbought the S&P 500 is. Following … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued
It is an FOMC week. The meeting is taking place at a time when markets are demanding aggressive cuts this year and the Fed is saying ‘no way’. Financial conditions have eased tremendously, and the central bank probably does not … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.7k, down 104.7k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the first meeting this year, and seven more – the scheduled ones – remain. … Continued
The S&P 500 last week joined its peers to break out to new highs. More gains are likely in the near term. Mid-to long-term prospects are dependent on if the recent improvement seen in margin debt and equity flows persists. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 889.4k, up 102.4k. At an annualized $709.9 billion, December’s retail sales were strong, better than expected and set a record. January’s preliminary count showed … Continued
The December 13th Fed pivot lit a fire under risk assets, leading equity shorts to cover and ETF inflows to jump. Flows, however, began to turn negative as the new year began. This does not help the equity bulls, even … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 787k, down 45.6k. The 200-day moving average (4.06 percent), which coincides with horizontal resistance at 4.1 percent, is standing like a rock. Since this … Continued