Mid- And Small-Caps Lag Large-Caps From Oct ’22 Lows, But Neck And Neck From ’23 Lows; Mid-Caps At Crucial Juncture Technically

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With the 4Q earnings season nearly over, large-caps were in the black last year, while mid- and small-caps were in the red. The latter two have underperformed the large-caps from Oct ’22 lows but are running neck and neck from … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued

‘Risk-On’ Rally In S&P 500, Or Nasdaq 100, Without Willingness To Take On Leverage Probably Unsustainable

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

January saw margin debt only inch up, even as the S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent. This divergence, should it continue in the months ahead, could end up helping equity bears more than the bulls. The S&P 500 opened 2024 with … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 760.5k, down 67.9k. FOMC minutes for the January 30-31 meeting are due out Wednesday. The policy-making body stood pat at that meeting, with the … Continued

Way Overbought US Equity Indices Used January’s CPI Report As Excuse To Weaken

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

US equities sold off Tuesday – apparently in reaction to higher-than-expected CPI readings for January. The consensus may have expected better prints, but the fact remains that last month’s y/y change was better than December’s. The disinflation trend is intact. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 828.5k, down 30.6k. For nearly a month now, the 10-year treasury yield has struggled at 4.2 percent. This week, it rallied 15 basis points … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 859k, up 74.3k. January produced a blockbuster payrolls report. The economy added 353,000 non-farm jobs and the prior months were revised higher. This only … Continued

With Big Gains In Stocks, Major Tech Companies On Schedule To Report 4Q23 Earnings, FOMC Likely To Disappoint Equity Bulls

It is an FOMC week. The meeting is taking place at a time when markets are demanding aggressive cuts this year and the Fed is saying ‘no way’. Financial conditions have eased tremendously, and the central bank probably does not … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.7k, down 104.7k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the first meeting this year, and seven more – the scheduled ones – remain. … Continued