Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 29, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 900.6k, up 88.9k. FOMC minutes for the September 15-16 meeting are due out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 22, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 811.8k, down 9.5k. Lateral support at 4.75s on the 10-year treasury yield was never tested, with this week’s low taking place at 4.93 percent … Continued
The Fed raised rates for the first time in just over three years. Equities are acting as if it is one, or two, and done. But futures traders are pricing in three more hikes by December next year. The major … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 15, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 821.2k, down 13.5k. Markets were begging the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to hike, and the policy-making body did not disappoint, raising … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 8, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 834.8k, down 74.5k. Last week, August’s much-better-than-expected jobs report – creating 162,000 non-farm jobs coupled with an upward revision for June and July – … Continued
Major equity indices essentially went sideways last week, and interest rates firmed up. August fared very well in job creation, and this probably puts the FOMC under pressure to tighten monetary policy, provided of course this Friday’s CPI report plays … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 1, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 909.3k, up 70.3k. Going into the two-day FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting ending on the 16th this month, markets were laser-focused on two … Continued
An interest-rate hike next month is looking like a certainty. Warsh’s hawkish posture on inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s target for more than five years, comes at a time when corporate profit growth is at an unsustainable level. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839k, down 108k. Once again, futures traders have brought rate-hike expectations forward to September (15-16) from December (8-9), with the probabilities for a quarter-point … Continued
Markets are confused. Rate-hike expectations on the short end have been pushed back to December from September. Yields, however, are rallying on the long end. Just a few weeks ago, Fed Chair Warsh was thanking the bond market for higher … Continued