WTI Crude Looks Tired – Trade Brewing In XLE

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade.  As they usually are.  These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.3k, down 107.6k. A Bloomberg article last week about China beginning to weigh slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys gave the bond market … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one?  The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Excesses, Momentum Intact – Watching Shorter-Term Averages For Clues N/T

A P/E of 17x on the S&P 500 large cap index cannot be called euphoric.  A little above average, sure, but not euphoric.  On forward operating earnings using next year’s estimates, that is what the index is currently trading at. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on.  Doves versus hawks.  At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued

Gold Pushes Past $1,300 – Dollar, Non-Commercials Likely Decide Next Direction

Gold shows nice price action, just broke past $1,300/ounce, and has room to rally further, particularly if non-commercial futures traders continue to keep the faith and/or the U.S. dollar weakens further. Most recently, the yellow metal bottomed at $1,238.30 on … Continued

IWM Ratio Put Spread For Possible Slightly Down Move N/T

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Non-commercial futures traders tend to be trend followers, and do a pretty good job of it except at inflection points. Chart 1 plots these traders’ holdings in Russell 2000 mini-index futures (ICE and CME combined) with the cash.  The two … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 83.7k, up 39.4k. No one said a breakout of this significance would be easy. Last week, 10-year yields closed right underneath a three-decade-old descending … Continued

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