Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 6, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.6k, down 24.1k. Going into December’s jobs report out Friday, futures traders were extremely confident that the fed funds rate would be left unchanged … Continued
In a seasonally favorable period, US equity indices are rallying but with hesitancy, with small-caps and tech struggling to build on most recent momentum. This can change if VIX breaches eight-year trendline support. As of the 16th this month, non-commercials, … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the major equity indices last week all rallied toward their October highs, even as short-term indicators got further pushed into overbought territory. The meeting likely becomes a sell-the-news phenomenon. The Russell 2000 finished up … Continued
Equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. With index-level short interest at/near record, longs, if successful, will be able to build on last week’s positive momentum. Seasonality is on their side, but it is equally possible this potential tailwind has … Continued
Stocks are on the backfoot, with bulls continuing to hang on to optimism for lower rates and bears beginning to benefit from extended multiples plus weakening technicals. Near-term, bulls are likely to benefit from last Friday’s intraday reversal, even as … Continued
Going into last week, investors were keenly focused on a couple of things: FOMC meeting and Big Tech earnings. Benchmark interest rates were lowered on Wednesday, but there was no commitment to do so again in December. And, with 5 … Continued
From the intraday low 12 sessions ago, the S&P 500 is up five percent, with back-to-back gap-up sessions in the last two. This is taking place at a time when Nasdaq and NYSE short interest sits nears record highs. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 23, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 844.1k, up 24.8k. The 10-year treasury yield has approached a crucial spot. It finished up five basis points this week to 4.19 percent, with … Continued
The Russell 2000 has finally joined the S&P 500 in reaching new highs. Lower interest rates, and hopes for more, likely triggered the move. The path ahead is not so clear. Bulls could be either looking at a massive breakout … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 16, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 819.3k, down 38.7k. As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 400 basis points … Continued