CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 784.7k, down 104.7k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This is the first meeting this year, and seven more – the scheduled ones – remain. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 889.4k, up 102.4k. At an annualized $709.9 billion, December’s retail sales were strong, better than expected and set a record. January’s preliminary count showed … Continued

Post-Pivot Spike In S&P 500-Focused ETF Flows Losing Steam – Bound To Catch Up With US Equity Indices At/Near Highs

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The December 13th Fed pivot lit a fire under risk assets, leading equity shorts to cover and ETF inflows to jump. Flows, however, began to turn negative as the new year began. This does not help the equity bulls, even … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 787k, down 45.6k. The 200-day moving average (4.06 percent), which coincides with horizontal resistance at 4.1 percent, is standing like a rock. Since this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued

Bond Shorts Betting On Higher Yields Probably Right Tactically But Not Strategically

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Something is afoot in the bond land – in how bond shorts are viewing things. They have used the sharp decline in the 10-year T-yield post-December 13th FOMC meeting to aggressively go short these notes, betting on higher rates. They … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805k, up 117.4k. Non-commercials are not pulling back. Far from it! Their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures went up another 17.1 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued

Doves Fly, Bulls Run, Animal Spirits On Loose

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Equities | 0

Even though Chair Powell said it is far too early to declare victory, he and his team did exactly that yesterday when they caught markets by surprise by making a hard dovish turn. The dot plot now expects up to … Continued