Rallying unrelentingly post-April lows, the major US equity indices nevertheless were only trudging higher in the last several weeks, with several potentially bearish candles on the weekly, which, however, went unconfirmed. Last week produced another. Will the bears manage to … Continued
Nasdaq and NYSE short interest just hit a new high. With stocks showing strong momentum, short squeeze is always possible, but the major equity indices are also giving out signs of fatigue. Having had difficulty converting potentially bearish candles into … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 23, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 844.1k, up 24.8k. The 10-year treasury yield has approached a crucial spot. It finished up five basis points this week to 4.19 percent, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 16, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 819.3k, down 38.7k. As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 400 basis points … Continued
After back-to-back 20-percent gains in 2024 and 2023, the S&P 500 is up another 12 percent this year. Its market cap is near $59 trillion. Several valuation multiples are either elevated or at fresh records, even as households’ equity allocation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 9, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 858k, down 10.4k. Next week, the FOMC meets. The two-day affair ends on Wednesday, and this will be the sixth meeting this year; two … Continued
The jobs market has meaningfully decelerated the last four months. In the futures market, traders are pricing in six cuts in the next 15 months. The major equity indices are sitting on tons of gains from the April lows; concurrently, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 2, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 868.4k, down 15.5k. Non-farm payrolls continue to disappoint. August only produced 22,000 jobs, with June revised lower into a minus column – the first … Continued
With massive gains post-April lows, the major US equity indices are showing signs of fatigue. This is taking place a couple of weeks before the upcoming FOMC meeting in which markets have locked in a 25-basis-point cut in the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 26, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 883.8k, down 61.7k. Unlike his first four-year term, President Donald Trump’s preoccupation with the Federal Reserve has gone up meaningfully during his second term. … Continued