An extremely overbought equity market used a rise in interest rates post-May jobs report as an excuse to lock in gains last Friday. More unwinding probably lies ahead. Until last Thursday, the S&P 500 was on course for a record … Continued
More evidence came out this week that the labor market is in deceleration and more weakness lies ahead. Non-farm job openings tumbled 617,000 month-over-month in October to 8.73 million. This was the lowest since March 2021. The series reached a … Continued
Divergence between jobs momentum and other macro data points Annual growth in productivity past four years mere 0.68 percent Infrastructure, both structures and equipment, is rapidly aging It has been more or less an enigma. The divergence between various U.S. … Continued
Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued
U.S. unemployment claims near historical lows, job cuts subdued In a sea of stability, could an ocean of troubles be lurking? Crude drop in oil price has potential to throw a curve It is always cheap – and prudent – … Continued
JOLTS data came out this AM, and continues to point toward a healthy job market. This data series only goes back to 2004, but as the chart below shows, it correlates well with U.S. non-farm payroll. Both leading up to … Continued
Remember the August payroll report, which came in much weaker than the consensus was expecting? After six consecutive months of 200k-plus (April in fact was 300k-plus) jobs, August produced a mere 142k. Across the board, economists quickly brushed it off … Continued
There was a lot of excitement last week when housing starts/building permits data were released for July. Starts surged 15.7 percent month-over-month and 21.7 percent year-over-year to 1.1mn units (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Multi-family (five units or more) easily outran … Continued
A month ago, we pointed out a divergence between 10- and two-year Treasury yield spread, which peaked as 2013 was unwinding, and financial stocks, which had ceased to track the spread and were rallying. Going back nearly 18 years, the … Continued
At hedgopia, we try to be as objective as possible. Currently, this blogger is bearish insofar as U.S. equities and economy are concerned. Nevertheless, as someone famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What would you do, … Continued