U.S. housing continues to send mixed signals … has been that way for a while. August’s existing home sales will be reported later this morning. July was down 3.2 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 … Continued
U.S. housing is stuck. That is pretty much the impression one gets looking at April’s housing starts that were out yesterday. Starts rose 6.6 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.17 million units. The cycle high 1.21 … Continued
ITB, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. home construction ETF, has rallied strong the past couple of months. From the February 11th low through the intra-day high yesterday, it jumped north of 30 percent, rallying past its 50- and 200-day moving … Continued
Sales of existing homes collapsed 10.5 percent month-over-month in November, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million units. This was the first time since February this year sales came in below five million. November sales were nearly 15 … Continued
Directionally, ITB, the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF, and U.S. homebuilder sentiment tend to move together. The correlation coefficient is far from perfect, but at 0.68 between May 2006 and November 2015, it is decent (Chart 1). The National … Continued
Are U.S. homebuilders getting too aggressive? Makes you wonder. This month, the National Association of Home Builders housing market index rose three points to 64, to a 10-year high. There have been times in the past when builder sentiment ran … Continued
Of late, momentum in U.S. sales of both new and existing homes Post-bubble burst, price has appreciated much faster than sales improvement Builders express optimism but are cautious in starting construction; inventory well-behaved The upward pressure on U.S. home prices … Continued
U.S. home builder sentiment in June jumps, to match post-bubble high of last September Recent spike in interest rates, if sticks, potentially shot across housing bow ITB acts tentative, but has not given up on crucial 26 support U.S. home … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 12, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on weekly closing prices, the 10-year yield had a lackluster week – essentially flat. Nothing could be further from … Continued
U.S. household formation surges 1.8mn in four months to December Homebuilder sentiment drops to four-month low in Dec, but stays elevated ITB priced for reversal in years-long trend of renting versus owning – not a base case There are good … Continued