Homebuilder optimism is catching up with weakening home sales. Starts have responded and inventory is sharply rising – a byproduct of rapidly appreciating prices and a rise in mortgage rates. Buyers need to see relief on both these fronts before … Continued
Household formation has picked up speed, as have sales of homes, putting downward pressure on the supply of homes and upward pressure on prices. Prices are appreciating seven-eight times the rate of consumer inflation, hence not sustainable. US households are … Continued
US housing is going gangbusters. Sales are very strong. Builder optimism is at a record. Starts have recovered strongly. Amidst all this, ITB, having risen to a new high this month, is running into massive resistance. Housing activity has picked … Continued
Over the past year, housing data – both survey- and activity-based – have gotten better. Housing starts and sales of new and existing homes have strengthened since the December 2018/January 2019 lows. ITB just broke out of two-year resistance. Possible … Continued
After rallying in June and most of July, stocks began selling off late last month. Bulls nonetheless have managed to defend major support, even as stars seem to be lining up for them – magnitude and duration notwithstanding. Bulls are … Continued
Job growth and household formation are healthy. However, housing starts are falling behind. Not to mention the yawning gap between renter-occupied versus owner-occupied housing units. The post-financial crisis recovery is just three months short of completing a decade. Great Recession … Continued
If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued
Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week. They have the ball near term. Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong. The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued
ITB (iShares Dow Jones US home construction ETF) continues to search for direction. As did lots of other ETFs/indices/individual stocks, it fell drastically late January-early February. Unlike many others, however, recovery since has been tentative, to say the least. From … Continued
Homebuilder-focused ETF’s are at/near record highs. Momentum is intact, but builder sentiment – also at multi-year highs – is worth watching. Homebuilding stocks are on fire. XHB (SPDR S&P homebuilders ETF) is already up 5.6 percent for the year. Monday, … Continued