M2 Growth Deceleration Plus Recent Backup In Rates No Recipe For Overheating

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought.  Al­though several saw increased upside risks … Continued

Amidst Decent U.S. Growth, Dollar Woes Continue — What Gives?

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

Of late, the U.S. dollar has defied expectations. Since peaking at 103.82 early January last year through Thursday’s intraday low, the US dollar index (89.23) dropped 15 percent.  This was a period in which U.S. economic fundamentals have been decent … Continued

Ongoing Inventory Digestion, And Possible Accumulation — Again

posted in: Economy | 0

Thanks to faster growth in the second half last year, inventory is getting wrung out of the system.  It is probably only a matter of time accumulation occurs again. In 3Q17, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of … Continued

Downward Revision Trend In S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Intact Despite Improvement In Macro Of Late

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Of late, U.S. economic data have been coming in better than expected.  Is this getting translated into better corporate sales and earnings? The Citi Economic Surprise Index has shot up from -80 in the middle of the year to 56. … Continued

What If?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Is the U.S. economy strong, weak or just about right?  Better yet, is it getting stronger, weaker or going sideways?  The truth is, pessimists and optimists both can selectively pick and choose to support their own bias. That said, data … Continued

Trump Dangles Carrot In Front Of Yellen – Financials Likely Casualty

Last Wednesday, speaking to the Wall Street Journal President Trump said that the dollar was getting too strong and that it would eventually hurt the U.S. economy.  In the past, he, as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have made … Continued

Markets Dance To Fed’s Tune Way Too Much … Matter Of Time Before This Backfires

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued