The 10-year T-yield just poked its head out of 4.30s resistance. Economic data in recent weeks have come in much stronger than expected. Although it is hard to argue the rally in rates will have staying power – unless, of … Continued
The US bond market is in the thick of interesting dynamics. The Fed plans to reduce its bloated balance sheet – meaning less demand for treasury notes and bonds – even as foreigners are buying more and the US budget … Continued
On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued
As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pretty much implied on Tuesday that the Fed is behind the curve, although she tried to walk back her comments later. The economy may be “overheating”, but the Fed is not ready to dial back its … Continued
Reversing the prior week’s weakness, major US equity indices put up strong performance last week. The S&P 500, for instance, defended a rising trend line from last March. VIX collapsed, landing on low-20s, a breach of which opens the door … Continued
Georgia Senate results have pretty much ensured a new round of stimulus money as well as a fresh infrastructure package. Stocks had a massive 4Q, with the S&P 500 jumping 11.7 percent. This helped push the price-to-sales ratio further into … Continued
Easy money is here to stay. That was pretty much the message Chair Powell delivered this week. The US economy is up to the gills in leverage. A sustained rise in interest rates will hurt. The Fed will try to … Continued
US equities surged last week pricing in a divided government – a Democrat in the White House, Republicans in control of the Senate and Democrats of the House of Representatives. Major indices rallied right into important resistance. The focus now … Continued
Stocks increasingly are beginning to price in a possible democratic sweep on November 3. Both small- and large-caps staged important technical breakouts last week. They are liking the prospect of more stimulus, that is rising budget deficit. If this scenario … Continued